Traders in bitcoin derivatives are betting that the price will rise significantly, topping $100,000 in September, analysts say. However, despite this optimism, large investors, often referred to as "whales", are continuing to send their assets to exchange platforms, which could indicate selling pressure in the short term, the same analysts add.
After a notable rebound in bitcoin on Friday, which was sustained throughout the weekend and at the start of the week, conditions look favourable in the bitcoin options market. Analysts at QCP Capital note that bitcoin risk reversals are turning positive, with calls now costing more than bets. This suggests bullish sentiment among investors, who are willing to pay more for options that benefit from a rise in bitcoin rather than those that protect against a fall in its price.
"We are seeing renewed demand for September bitcoin calls at a strike price of $75,000 and also for those at $100,000," added analysts at QCP Capital.
QCP Capital's report is consistent with data from derivatives exchange Deribit. According to its data, the largest volume per instrument on the options market was for bitcoin calls with a strike price of $110,000 for the end-September expiry.
However, according to Stocklytics analyst Neil Roarty, for bitcoin to reach a price above $100,000, "it will need to show even greater resilience in the face of increased regulatory scrutiny as well as wider political and economic uncertainty."
Despite the optimism in the derivatives market, Bitfinex analysts are seeing activity among bitcoin whales that could signal selling pressure in the near term. According to this week's Alpha report from Bitfinex, the ratio of whales on the bitcoin exchange platform suggests potential increased selling pressure. This group of investors has been observed sending more digital assets to exchange platforms, raising the possibility that they are preparing to sell.
"That said, historically, the majority of aggressive selling has come from the more price-sensitive short-term holders, i.e. those who have owned bitcoin for 155 days or less. For this group, the realised price is $58,700, and in today's markets, this appears to act as an important support level," the report adds.
