Bullish trend for bitcoin: 200-day moving average reaches record highs
Raphaël Wernert
5/10/24
Bitcoin's 200-day moving average, a key indicator for forecasting long-term Bitcoin price trends, has reached an all-time high of $50,178, suggesting an optimistic long-term outlook. This indicator peaked on May 6, according to BuyBitcoinWorldwide, as Bitcoin recovers from a post halving price decline that saw it fall as low as $56,800 after network block rewards halved to 3.125 BTC on April 20.
The 200-day simple moving average summarises the last 200 days of closing Bitcoin prices and divides them by 200 to smooth out short-term price fluctuations, aiming to show traders and analysts a long-term trend indicator.
When BTC prices trade above this indicator - as is currently the case - this generally suggests that the long-term trend is bullish, while the opposite is true when prices fall below the 200-day moving average.
Speaking on CNBC's Squawk Box on 6 May, Anthony Pompliano, a strong supporter of Bitcoin, commented on the breach of the 200-day moving average above $50,000 for the first time. "In the long term, Bitcoin continues to trend higher even though on a day-to-day basis its price is volatile. Don't be lulled to sleep by Bitcoin stagnating. The long-term thesis is stronger than ever," he added in a post on X.
According to analyst Willy Woo's WooCharts price models, the 200-week moving average, a much longer-term trend indicator, is also at a record high, just above $34,000. This means that the annual trend outlook is even more bullish.
The price of Bitcoin broke through the 200-week moving average in mid-October and has remained above it ever since. Spot prices are also well above the realised price indicator (RP), which is around $29,000.
Pompliano also mentioned that the Grayscale spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) recorded its first inflows on 3 May. The fund saw an inflow of $63 million after experiencing net outflows of more than $17.5 billion since it was converted from a trust to a spot ETF in mid-January.
The momentum has continued. On 6 April, the fund also posted an inflow, albeit smaller, of $3.9 million, according to preliminary data from Farside Investors.
